Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | USC -1600 SOU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +31 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | USC -11.3 (+19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -12.8 (+18.2) | 142.6 (-9.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -13.0 (+18.0) | 142.3 (-9.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -12.8 (+18.2) | 141.2 (-8.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -12.1 (+18.9) | 142.3 (-9.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-7 | 11-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#92) | -1.7 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#102) | -0.29 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#85) | -0.79 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#106) | 0.532 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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