Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | TOW -200 BRY +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | BRY -0.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -1.1 (+3.9) | 144.0 (-9.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -1.2 (+3.8) | 142.0 (-7.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -0.1 (+4.9) | 141.7 (-6.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRY -0.0 (+5.0) | 143.5 (-8.5) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | BRY 101 – 93 TOW |
| Dec 22, 2022 | BRY 69 – 59 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 14-2 |
| Home | 12-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-5 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#265) | -0.4 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#278) | -0.56 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#282) | -0.42 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#228) | 0.489 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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