Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | TCU -700 MTST +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +34 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -9.0 (+25.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -8.7 (+25.3) | 139.0 (-9.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -8.3 (+25.7) | 138.2 (-8.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -8.5 (+25.5) | 137.6 (-7.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -11.6 (+22.4) | 137.9 (-7.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#87) | 1.2 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#116) | -0.52 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#109) | -0.17 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#120) | 0.474 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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