Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ +150 ILL -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +3 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -6.2 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -2.7 (-0.3) | 152.1 (+4.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -0.7 (-2.3) | 149.8 (+7.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -1.4 (-1.6) | 151.2 (+5.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -0.6 (-2.4) | 153.6 (+3.4) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2025 | ILL 91 – 48 MIZ |
| Dec 23, 2023 | ILL 97 – 73 MIZ |
| Dec 23, 2022 | MIZ 93 – 71 ILL |
| Dec 23, 2021 | ILL 88 – 63 MIZ |
| Dec 13, 2020 | MIZ 81 – 78 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 18-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#41) | 18.8 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#21) | 2.04 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.72 (#25) | 3.38 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#70) | 0.564 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 45.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.7% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 37.2% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 41.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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