Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
| Money | ILL -292 MIZ +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +24 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -10.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+25.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -10.3 (+13.7) | 150.7 (+19.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -11.0 (+13.0) | 144.0 (+26.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -10.1 (+13.9) | 145.4 (+24.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -10.2 (+13.8) | 145.6 (+24.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2025 | ILL 91 – 48 MIZ |
| Dec 22, 2024 | ILL 80 – 77 MIZ |
| Dec 23, 2022 | MIZ 93 – 71 ILL |
| Dec 23, 2021 | ILL 88 – 63 MIZ |
| Dec 13, 2020 | MIZ 81 – 78 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 0-18 |
| Home | 15-3 | 6-11 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L19 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#16) | 4.4 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#23) | 1.03 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.75 (#17) | 1.81 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#37) | 0.541 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 44.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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