Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | MIZ +150 ILL -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +3 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -0.7 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -4.1 (-1.1) | 149.2 (+9.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -1.7 (+1.3) | 145.8 (+13.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -4.0 (-1.0) | 146.5 (+12.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -3.5 (-0.5) | 147.2 (+11.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2025 | ILL 91 – 48 MIZ |
| Dec 22, 2024 | ILL 80 – 77 MIZ |
| Dec 23, 2023 | ILL 97 – 73 MIZ |
| Dec 23, 2022 | MIZ 93 – 71 ILL |
| Dec 23, 2021 | ILL 88 – 63 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-10 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 16-4 |
| Home | 8-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#22) | 19.1 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#8) | 1.71 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.68 (#3) | 2.56 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.659 (#30) | 0.605 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 54.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 47.3% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 46.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 61.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 42.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 82.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 13.6% |
Game Analysis
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