Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +25 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -20.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -16.9 (+8.1) | 145.1 (+5.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -20.4 (+4.6) | 143.5 (+7.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -21.3 (+3.7) | 145.8 (+5.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -21.5 (+3.5) | 143.7 (+7.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2025 | ILL 91 – 48 MIZ |
| Dec 22, 2024 | ILL 80 – 77 MIZ |
| Dec 23, 2023 | ILL 97 – 73 MIZ |
| Dec 23, 2022 | MIZ 93 – 71 ILL |
| Dec 13, 2020 | MIZ 81 – 78 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#11) | -4.4 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#51) | -0.22 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#46) | -0.42 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#36) | 0.477 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 24.1% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 42.1% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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