Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -455 MIZ +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +43 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -10.4 (+32.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (-19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -7.3 (+35.7) | 150.7 (-11.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -7.6 (+35.4) | 148.5 (-9.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -7.2 (+35.8) | 150.8 (-11.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -6.8 (+36.2) | 150.4 (-11.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2024 | ILL 80 – 77 MIZ |
| Dec 23, 2023 | ILL 97 – 73 MIZ |
| Dec 23, 2022 | MIZ 93 – 71 ILL |
| Dec 23, 2021 | ILL 88 – 63 MIZ |
| Dec 13, 2020 | MIZ 81 – 78 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 79.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#12) | 9.0 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#22) | 1.40 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.55 (#16) | 1.91 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#27) | 0.512 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 53.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 60.5% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 39.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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