Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ +222 ILL -278 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +22 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -7.5 (+29.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -3.8 (+25.8) | 154.1 (+9.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -2.5 (+24.5) | 156.4 (+7.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -0.3 (+22.3) | 155.9 (+8.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -1.7 (+23.7) | 152.9 (+11.1) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2025 | ILL 91 – 48 MIZ |
| Dec 22, 2024 | ILL 80 – 77 MIZ |
| Dec 23, 2023 | ILL 97 – 73 MIZ |
| Dec 23, 2021 | ILL 88 – 63 MIZ |
| Dec 13, 2020 | MIZ 81 – 78 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#74) | 14.1 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#20) | 1.87 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#32) | 2.62 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#61) | 0.556 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.5% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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