Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UL +450 MCN -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +8 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | MCN -14.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -8.6 (+0.6) | 135.6 (-15.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -10.1 (+2.1) | 135.3 (-15.3) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -8.0 (+0.0) | 136.3 (-16.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -8.0 (+0.0) | 136.6 (-16.6) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | MCN 88 – 62 UL |
| Dec 17, 2023 | MCN 74 – 72 UL |
| Dec 16, 2022 | UL 78 – 70 MCN |
| Dec 9, 2021 | UL 83 – 68 MCN |
| Dec 20, 2020 | UL 75 – 65 MCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 19-1 |
| Home | 5-12 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#339) | 6.5 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#327) | 0.50 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#316) | 0.97 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#288) | 0.579 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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