Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | MCN +500 UL -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +8 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -9.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -10.1 (+2.1) | 143.1 (+4.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -10.3 (+2.3) | 141.0 (+7.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -7.9 (-0.1) | 143.8 (+4.2) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -8.7 (+0.7) | 143.7 (+4.3) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | MCN 88 – 62 UL |
| Dec 22, 2024 | MCN 64 – 56 UL |
| Dec 17, 2023 | MCN 74 – 72 UL |
| Dec 9, 2021 | UL 83 – 68 MCN |
| Dec 20, 2020 | UL 75 – 65 MCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-23 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-8 | 14-0 |
| Away | 3-14 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -12.4 (#346) | 2.4 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.65 (#340) | 1.53 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.51 (#354) | 1.67 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#308) | 0.584 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.52 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 27.2% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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