Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -10.0 Push |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UL -19.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -17.5 (-7.5) | 150.7 (-10.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -18.0 (-8.0) | 148.4 (-8.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -16.4 (-6.4) | 151.2 (-11.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | MCN 88 – 62 UL |
| Dec 22, 2024 | MCN 64 – 56 UL |
| Dec 17, 2023 | MCN 74 – 72 UL |
| Dec 16, 2022 | UL 78 – 70 MCN |
| Dec 9, 2021 | UL 83 – 68 MCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#211) | -17.9 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#84) | -2.76 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#91) | -5.11 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#42) | 0.197 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 22.6% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 34.3% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 33.1% |
Game Analysis
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