Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +15 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UL -7.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -8.4 (+6.6) | 142.3 (+8.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -8.6 (+6.4) | 144.3 (+6.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -6.7 (+8.3) | 141.5 (+9.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -6.7 (+8.3) | 139.6 (+11.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | MCN 88 – 62 UL |
| Dec 22, 2024 | MCN 64 – 56 UL |
| Dec 17, 2023 | MCN 74 – 72 UL |
| Dec 16, 2022 | UL 78 – 70 MCN |
| Dec 20, 2020 | UL 75 – 65 MCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 4-10 |
| Home | 7-6 | 6-5 |
| Away | 6-8 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#247) | -7.3 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#221) | -2.02 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#198) | -3.16 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#240) | 0.490 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.7% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 25.6% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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