Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP -115 UCD -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +39 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -0.7 (+38.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -2.4 (+36.6) | 140.0 (-9.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -2.1 (+36.9) | 140.5 (-9.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -1.8 (+37.2) | 140.4 (-9.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -0.9 (+38.1) | 141.1 (-10.1) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2023 | UCD 79 – 78 PEPP |
| Nov 18, 2021 | PEPP 72 – 67 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-22 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-9 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#247) | -1.1 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#298) | 0.87 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#294) | 0.65 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#296) | 0.557 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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