Some is rich and some is poor and that's the way the world is / And I don't believe in lying back and saying how bad your life is. "Bankrobber" - The Clash
Firestone Fieldhouse · November 18, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread PEPP -1.5 Home covered
O/U 146.0 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total PEPP win
Actual PEPP +5 139 Won
Massey UCD -4.4 (+9.4)
Massey Totals 145.2 (-6.2)
Bradley-Terry 6%
Weighted B-T 1%
Baseline Plus ML UCD -2.9 (+7.9) 148.7 (-9.7) 57%
Baseline ML UCD -5.3 (+10.3) 145.7 (-6.7) 44%
Baseline Tuned ML UCD -3.7 (+8.7) 145.2 (-6.2) 27%
Efficiency Plus ML UCD -2.8 (+7.8) 146.4 (-7.4) 65%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 21, 2024 PEPP 8546 UCD
Nov 9, 2023 UCD 7978 PEPP

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PEPP UCD
Overall 7-25 13-11
Conference 1-15 5-6
Home 7-9 7-5
Away 0-13 5-5
Neutral 0-3 1-1
Last 5 1-2 2-0
Streak L7 L1
Avg Pts For 67.3 67.6
Avg Pts Against 77.8 67.0
Massey -11.2 (#339) 3.0 (#114)
Bradley-Terry -1.73 (#322) 2.95 (#5)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.85 (#326) 4.53 (#3)
RPI 0.238 (#337) 0.688 (#53)
Shooting & Four Factors PEPP UCD
FG% 39.1% 41.6%
3PT% 31.1% 25.5%
REB / G 36.3 41.0
OREB / G 11.0 12.0
AST / TO 0.98 0.84
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.4% 46.4%
TOV% 21.2% 19.4%
ORB% 28.7% 29.6%
FT Rate 19.0% 32.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.2% 40.2%
Opp TOV% 21.3% 22.2%
DRB% 71.0% 62.4%
Opp FT Rate 19.0% 33.9%

Game Analysis

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