Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -4.4 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -2.9 (+7.9) | 148.7 (-9.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -5.3 (+10.3) | 145.7 (-6.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -3.7 (+8.7) | 145.2 (-6.2) | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -2.8 (+7.8) | 146.4 (-7.4) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | PEPP 85 – 46 UCD |
| Nov 9, 2023 | UCD 79 – 78 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 5-6 |
| Home | 7-9 | 7-5 |
| Away | 0-13 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#339) | 3.0 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#322) | 2.95 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.85 (#326) | 4.53 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.238 (#337) | 0.688 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 40.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.