I'm just like a turtle crawling out of my shell. "Boombastic" - Shaggy
Reynolds Center · December 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread TLSA -26.5 Home covered
O/U 136.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total TLSA win
Actual TLSA +45 141 Won
Massey TLSA -18.6 (+26.4)
Massey Totals 138.7 (+2.3)
Bradley-Terry 71%
Weighted B-T 83%
Baseline Plus ML TLSA -18.1 (+26.9) 132.5 (+8.5) 89%
Baseline ML TLSA -13.9 (+31.1) 135.0 (+6.0) 89%
Baseline Tuned ML TLSA -14.3 (+30.7) 134.0 (+7.0) 86%
Efficiency Plus ML TLSA -17.9 (+27.1) 137.3 (+3.7) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 20, 2023 TLSA 7950 MVSU
Dec 17, 2022 TLSA 6651 MVSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TLSA MVSU
Overall 13-20 3-28
Conference 6-12 1-17
Home 8-9 2-9
Away 3-8 1-19
Neutral 2-3 0-0
Last 5 1-4 0-5
Streak L1 L9
Avg Pts For 70.1 52.4
Avg Pts Against 74.2 82.3
Massey -9.8 (#322) -24.2 (#364)
Bradley-Terry -1.73 (#312) -1.83 (#317)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.96 (#295) -2.66 (#325)
RPI 0.393 (#334) 0.487 (#195)
Shooting & Four Factors TLSA MVSU
FG% 40.1% 35.3%
3PT% 29.4% 23.6%
REB / G 37.6 24.9
OREB / G 12.0 7.2
AST / TO 1.07 0.38
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.9% 38.3%
TOV% 17.0% 27.2%
ORB% 30.2% 22.4%
FT Rate 25.9% 18.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.5% 61.6%
Opp TOV% 16.2% 13.9%
DRB% 65.8% 58.5%
Opp FT Rate 24.6% 32.7%

Game Analysis

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