Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA -4000 MVSU +1900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +29 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -26.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -27.2 (+1.8) | 133.7 (-4.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -24.6 (+4.4) | 134.1 (-5.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -21.5 (+7.5) | 133.9 (-4.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -21.0 (+8.0) | 136.4 (-7.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | TLSA 93 – 48 MVSU |
| Dec 17, 2022 | TLSA 66 – 51 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 1-30 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 1-17 |
| Home | 14-4 | 1-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 0-22 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 55.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#162) | -21.7 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#217) | -2.70 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#231) | -3.75 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#241) | 0.436 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 34.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 28.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 38.1% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 24.7% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.5% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 59.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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