I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
Reynolds Center · December 17, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread TLSA -20.5 Away covered
O/U 135.5 Under
Money TLSA -10000 / MVSU +1600
Model Predictions
Spread Total TLSA win
Actual TLSA +15 117 Won
Massey TLSA -17.1 (-2.1)
Massey Totals 135.5 (-18.5)
Bradley-Terry 86%
Weighted B-T 94%
Baseline Plus ML TLSA -12.9 (+2.1) 133.5 (-16.5) 88%
Baseline ML TLSA -11.7 (+3.3) 134.2 (-17.2) 88%
Baseline Tuned ML TLSA -11.5 (+3.5) 134.1 (-17.1) 87%
Efficiency Plus ML TLSA -13.8 (+1.2) 134.4 (-17.4) 89%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 21, 2024 TLSA 9348 MVSU
Dec 20, 2023 TLSA 7950 MVSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TLSA MVSU
Overall 5-25 5-27
Conference 1-17 4-14
Home 4-10 4-6
Away 0-12 1-19
Neutral 1-3 0-2
Last 5 1-4 0-5
Streak L12 L2
Avg Pts For 65.3 61.0
Avg Pts Against 77.4 74.8
Massey -3.2 (#236) -15.3 (#357)
Bradley-Terry -0.94 (#263) -1.80 (#315)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.69 (#227) -2.33 (#310)
RPI 0.415 (#305) 0.434 (#281)
Shooting & Four Factors TLSA MVSU
FG% 42.2% 36.3%
3PT% 33.3% 36.6%
REB / G 34.6 30.5
OREB / G 9.8 9.4
AST / TO 0.96 0.48
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.2% 41.1%
TOV% 18.6% 25.0%
ORB% 26.7% 26.7%
FT Rate 16.6% 22.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.8% 54.4%
Opp TOV% 18.9% 16.4%
DRB% 66.6% 63.4%
Opp FT Rate 19.7% 24.1%

Game Analysis

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