Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA -10000 MVSU +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +15 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -17.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -12.9 (+2.1) | 133.5 (-16.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -11.7 (+3.3) | 134.2 (-17.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -11.5 (+3.5) | 134.1 (-17.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -13.8 (+1.2) | 134.4 (-17.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | TLSA 93 – 48 MVSU |
| Dec 20, 2023 | TLSA 79 – 50 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 4-14 |
| Home | 4-10 | 4-6 |
| Away | 0-12 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L12 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#236) | -15.3 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#263) | -1.80 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#227) | -2.33 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#305) | 0.434 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 36.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 25.0% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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