Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -29.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +28 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -27.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -26.5 (+1.5) | 154.8 (+7.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -25.9 (+2.1) | 153.5 (+8.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -23.2 (+4.8) | 152.6 (+9.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -24.1 (+3.9) | 158.4 (+3.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#33) | -9.8 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#55) | -2.72 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#57) | -3.69 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#68) | 0.397 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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