Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -2500 SHSU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +32 | 188 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -21.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (+29.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -20.3 (+11.7) | 154.5 (+33.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -22.2 (+9.8) | 154.7 (+33.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -20.3 (+11.7) | 155.7 (+32.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -17.0 (+15.0) | 156.1 (+31.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#14) | 0.1 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#24) | 0.03 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.71 (#26) | 0.10 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.657 (#13) | 0.494 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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