Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | KC +125 ETSU -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -4.7 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -2.6 (+9.6) | 138.2 (+0.8) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -2.6 (+9.6) | 139.0 (+0.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -2.2 (+9.2) | 138.3 (+0.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -4.2 (+11.2) | 138.2 (+0.8) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2023 | ETSU 70 – 57 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#267) | 3.3 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#272) | -0.10 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#259) | 0.31 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#295) | 0.485 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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