I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
Gersten Pavilion · December 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread LMU -6.5 Home covered
O/U 136.5 Over
Money LMU -300 / SOU +250
Model Predictions
Spread Total LMU win
Actual LMU +16 162 Won
Massey LMU -0.7 (+15.3)
Massey Totals 130.6 (+31.4)
Bradley-Terry 77%
Weighted B-T 85%
Baseline Plus ML LMU -4.0 (+12.0) 134.0 (+28.0) 64%
Baseline ML LMU -3.1 (+12.9) 133.6 (+28.4) 65%
Baseline Tuned ML LMU -3.3 (+12.7) 133.1 (+28.9) 62%
Efficiency Plus ML LMU -3.6 (+12.4) 136.4 (+25.6) 70%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LMU SOU
Overall 17-15 20-12
Conference 8-10 15-3
Home 11-6 11-1
Away 3-8 9-10
Neutral 3-1 0-1
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.3 70.6
Avg Pts Against 72.1 69.5
Massey -3.6 (#227) -0.1 (#161)
Bradley-Terry 0.33 (#143) -0.04 (#177)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.40 (#143) -0.48 (#207)
RPI 0.518 (#140) 0.544 (#109)
Shooting & Four Factors LMU SOU
FG% 40.9% 41.5%
3PT% 30.6% 31.7%
REB / G 34.9 34.9
OREB / G 8.9 12.1
AST / TO 1.08 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.6% 46.7%
TOV% 16.3% 19.9%
ORB% 24.2% 32.1%
FT Rate 18.0% 20.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.0% 53.8%
Opp TOV% 16.0% 20.3%
DRB% 73.6% 66.5%
Opp FT Rate 19.5% 26.7%

Game Analysis

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