Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | LMU -300 SOU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +16 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | LMU -0.7 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+31.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -4.0 (+12.0) | 134.0 (+28.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -3.1 (+12.9) | 133.6 (+28.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -3.3 (+12.7) | 133.1 (+28.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -3.6 (+12.4) | 136.4 (+25.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#227) | -0.1 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#143) | -0.04 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#143) | -0.48 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#140) | 0.544 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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