Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -800 APP +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -17.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -15.6 (-11.6) | 123.5 (+8.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -15.1 (-11.1) | 126.4 (+5.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -13.9 (-9.9) | 127.0 (+5.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -12.6 (-8.6) | 124.8 (+7.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 17-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#68) | -4.7 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#82) | -0.54 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#79) | -0.87 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#64) | 0.473 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.0% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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