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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–6 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+25.0 | 145.7 | 91% | 49–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 127.9 | 50% | 75–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 143.5 | 86% | 69–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 141.1 | 48% | 60–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 151.3 | 33% | 92–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 144.8 | 56% | 65–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 141.9 | 61% | 69–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+30.8 | 150.4 | 91% | 62–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 135.6 | 60% | 56–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.4 | 140.1 | 86% | 55–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 152.7 | 81% | 75–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 143.5 | 56% | 79–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.4 | 141.1 | 73% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 157.2 | 51% | 87–92 | ✗ |
|
|
+21.8 | 150.7 | 91% | 51–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.6 | 135.5 | 77% | 79–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.6 | 131.7 | 86% | 68–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 149.3 | 61% | 76–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+24.2 | 137.7 | 90% | 45–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.0 | 136.2 | 28% | 76–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 146.6 | 76% | 79–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 130.5 | 55% | 66–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 151.6 | 53% | 83–80 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.