Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP -215 LBSU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LBSU +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | PEPP -9.4 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -4.7 (-7.7) | 135.5 (+19.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -7.0 (-10.0) | 138.2 (+16.8) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -8.0 (-11.0) | 137.9 (+17.1) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -7.6 (-10.6) | 135.5 (+19.5) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | LBSU 81 – 78 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-22 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 3-17 |
| Home | 7-9 | 3-11 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L15 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#227) | -8.5 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#265) | -1.68 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#274) | -1.73 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#253) | 0.416 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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