Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UGA -20000 BUF +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +51 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -25.6 (+25.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -25.0 (+26.0) | 145.7 (+3.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -24.3 (+26.7) | 143.7 (+5.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -23.2 (+27.8) | 144.6 (+4.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -23.5 (+27.5) | 147.0 (+2.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-3 | 6-9 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#31) | -7.7 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#23) | -1.44 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.94 (#19) | -2.44 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#33) | 0.440 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 40.8% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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