Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | GRAM +240 NORF -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GRAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +6 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | NORF -6.0 (-0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -5.4 (-0.6) | 134.2 (+11.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -5.9 (-0.1) | 134.8 (+11.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -6.3 (+0.3) | 136.0 (+10.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -6.7 (+0.7) | 136.1 (+9.9) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | GRAM 80 – 68 NORF |
| Nov 29, 2021 | NORF 70 – 63 GRAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GRAM | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-22 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-3 |
| Home | 6-7 | 11-1 |
| Away | 4-12 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#250) | 1.2 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.14 (#354) | 0.26 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.57 (#358) | 0.28 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#306) | 0.517 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GRAM | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 19.0% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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