Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | GRAM -102 NORF -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GRAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +12 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -1.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.1 (+22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -1.3 (+13.3) | 130.7 (+17.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -0.2 (+12.2) | 128.2 (+19.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GRAM -0.0 (+12.0) | 129.7 (+18.3) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -1.1 (+13.1) | 131.4 (+16.6) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2024 | NORF 76 – 70 GRAM |
| Nov 29, 2021 | NORF 70 – 63 GRAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GRAM | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-6 |
| Home | 7-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#240) | -3.3 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#236) | -1.47 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#233) | -1.81 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#204) | 0.445 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GRAM | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 28.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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