Hallelujah, here she comes. "Skateaway" - Dire Straits
Murphy Center · December 20, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MTSU -1.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Under
Money MTSU -125 / LIP +105
Model Predictions
Spread Total MTSU win
Actual MTSU +2 132 Won
Massey MTSU -0.4 (+1.6)
Massey Totals 142.7 (-10.7)
Bradley-Terry 72%
Weighted B-T 56%
Baseline Plus ML MTSU -0.2 (+1.8) 144.8 (-12.8) 56%
Baseline ML MTSU -1.7 (+0.3) 142.4 (-10.4) 54%
Baseline Tuned ML MTSU -1.3 (+0.7) 141.1 (-9.1) 58%
Efficiency Plus ML MTSU -0.4 (+1.6) 144.9 (-12.9) 53%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MTSU LIP
Overall 22-12 25-10
Conference 12-6 14-4
Home 11-5 15-3
Away 8-5 10-6
Neutral 3-2 0-1
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 75.2 77.0
Avg Pts Against 73.8 68.2
Massey 2.2 (#123) 6.0 (#87)
Bradley-Terry 0.71 (#113) 0.59 (#124)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.63 (#135) 1.25 (#100)
RPI 0.553 (#94) 0.536 (#115)
Shooting & Four Factors MTSU LIP
FG% 45.6% 44.6%
3PT% 31.4% 32.6%
REB / G 38.7 35.9
OREB / G 12.1 8.8
AST / TO 0.98 1.37
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.1% 51.7%
TOV% 16.9% 16.5%
ORB% 33.5% 25.1%
FT Rate 24.1% 17.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.5% 49.4%
Opp TOV% 15.9% 18.5%
DRB% 69.3% 73.8%
Opp FT Rate 27.6% 11.5%

Game Analysis

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