Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU -125 LIP +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -0.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -0.2 (+1.8) | 144.8 (-12.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -1.7 (+0.3) | 142.4 (-10.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -1.3 (+0.7) | 141.1 (-9.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -0.4 (+1.6) | 144.9 (-12.9) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#123) | 6.0 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#113) | 0.59 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#135) | 1.25 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#94) | 0.536 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 11.5% |
Game Analysis
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