Everybody know I'm a motherfucking monster. "Monster" - Kanye West
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–11 on winners spread MAE 9.1 49 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Xavier @ UConn +12.3 146.9 87% 89–94 ✓
Memphis @ Virginia -2.0 124.2 40% 64–62 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ UNC Wilmington +4.1 137.5 71% 66–79 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Long Island University +1.4 138.5 45% 80–72 ✗
Murray State @ Indiana State -3.4 150.3 36% 74–84 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ South Florida +6.5 145.4 71% 77–69 ✗
Manhattan @ Wagner +1.8 127.3 46% 80–66 ✗
Davidson @ Temple +2.9 148.7 67% 61–62 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Fairfield -3.5 135.0 34% 64–63 ✓
Austin Peay @ Ohio +6.7 138.9 75% 58–78 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Vermont +0.9 129.7 53% 67–75 ✓
Elon @ East Tennessee State +2.3 135.9 63% 58–84 ✓
Longwood @ Campbell +2.9 138.9 62% 77–55 ✗
Richmond @ William & Mary +4.4 153.5 68% 87–93 ✓
Northeastern @ Massachusetts -0.8 148.8 53% 72–77 ✗
Lafayette @ George Washington +9.0 142.5 81% 62–82 ✓
Youngstown State @ Wright State +7.7 142.9 77% 80–70 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky +4.6 137.1 74% 60–73 ✓
Mercer @ Queens University +1.8 155.9 60% 66–73 ✓
American University @ Saint Joseph's +10.0 141.7 83% 57–84 ✓
Alabama A&M @ UAB +17.1 154.0 89% 67–96 ✓
Southern Utah @ UT Rio Grande Valley +4.8 152.2 73% 73–78 ✓
UMBC @ Georgia Tech +9.4 151.7 83% 82–91 ✓
Toledo @ Houston +25.6 138.9 91% 49–78 ✓
The Citadel @ Vanderbilt +26.1 145.4 91% 53–105 ✓
Evansville @ UT Arlington +9.1 147.6 78% 54–80 ✓
San Francisco @ Bradley +4.1 140.9 67% 64–66 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ North Texas +35.2 124.4 91% 42–83 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Illinois State +18.5 147.6 89% 60–81 ✓
Wofford @ Saint Louis +2.3 144.3 62% 74–71 ✗
Tarleton State @ Oklahoma State +17.3 138.7 90% 61–66 ✓
App State @ Louisiana -2.9 131.4 41% 62–68 ✗
Canisius @ Loyola Chicago +19.8 141.6 90% 60–72 ✓
Alabama @ North Dakota -12.1 160.0 15% 97–90 ✓
Butler @ Marquette +13.8 144.6 88% 70–80 ✓
Nicholls @ Gonzaga +30.4 152.6 91% 72–102 ✓
Michigan @ Oklahoma +2.9 144.7 64% 86–87 ✓
Samford @ Arizona +14.0 164.8 84% 64–96 ✓
Utah Valley @ Idaho State +3.4 137.9 66% 70–56 ✗
Idaho @ UC Davis +8.1 140.3 80% 66–74 ✓
VCU @ New Mexico +2.2 147.8 67% 71–78 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Loyola Marymount +0.5 135.4 57% 58–60 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Portland -3.3 143.6 41% 81–64 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ USC +4.9 150.0 71% 69–90 ✓
Montana State @ UC Riverside +2.2 143.3 66% 80–83 ✓
Portland State @ Pacific +4.3 144.3 63% 81–75 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Santa Clara +10.5 145.0 83% 74–94 ✓
Washington State @ Washington +1.2 145.0 55% 73–89 ✓
Alabama State @ Norfolk State +3.9 146.6 70% 54–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.