Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR +105 CCSU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +1 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | CCSU -5.1 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -1.7 (+0.7) | 133.7 (-6.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -5.3 (+4.3) | 135.0 (-8.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -4.1 (+3.1) | 134.6 (-7.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -3.5 (+2.5) | 135.0 (-8.0) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | FAIR 84 – 70 CCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 25-7 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-2 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 12-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 63.1 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#320) | -0.1 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#257) | 0.79 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#294) | 0.54 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#247) | 0.574 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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