But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
SRC Arena · December 19, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UCR -2.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money UCR -145 / MTST +120
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCR win
Actual UCR +3 163 Won
Massey UCR -1.8 (+1.2)
Massey Totals 144.8 (+18.2)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 85%
Baseline Plus ML UCR -2.2 (+0.8) 143.3 (+19.7) 66%
Baseline ML UCR -2.2 (+0.8) 141.5 (+21.5) 64%
Baseline Tuned ML UCR -3.0 (+0.0) 142.3 (+20.7) 67%
Efficiency Plus ML UCR -3.0 (-0.0) 142.3 (+20.7) 64%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 23, 2023 MTST 6968 UCR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCR MTST
Overall 21-13 15-18
Conference 14-6 9-9
Home 14-1 11-3
Away 7-11 3-14
Neutral 0-1 1-1
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 74.5 70.7
Avg Pts Against 76.4 70.7
Massey -1.2 (#180) 1.2 (#142)
Bradley-Terry 1.24 (#81) -0.48 (#215)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.73 (#130) -0.11 (#176)
RPI 0.561 (#83) 0.472 (#226)
Shooting & Four Factors UCR MTST
FG% 40.7% 44.8%
3PT% 32.6% 37.1%
REB / G 35.3 31.5
OREB / G 11.2 7.5
AST / TO 1.04 1.27
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.8% 53.3%
TOV% 16.6% 16.7%
ORB% 29.4% 22.5%
FT Rate 20.6% 22.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.3% 48.4%
Opp TOV% 16.2% 16.7%
DRB% 69.1% 70.6%
Opp FT Rate 24.0% 28.3%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.