Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -145 MTST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +3 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -1.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -2.2 (+0.8) | 143.3 (+19.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -2.2 (+0.8) | 141.5 (+21.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -3.0 (+0.0) | 142.3 (+20.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -3.0 (-0.0) | 142.3 (+20.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2023 | MTST 69 – 68 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-11 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#180) | 1.2 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#81) | -0.48 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#130) | -0.11 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#83) | 0.472 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.