Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -138 UCR +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +1 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -10.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -7.0 (-6.0) | 129.2 (+7.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -6.9 (-5.9) | 127.6 (+9.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -6.3 (-5.3) | 129.5 (+7.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -6.7 (-5.7) | 128.8 (+8.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2024 | UCR 83 – 80 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#201) | -5.4 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#289) | -0.16 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#231) | -1.14 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.362 (#325) | 0.461 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 35.2% |
| 3PT% | 23.5% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 42.0% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 11.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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