Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | PAC -170 PRST +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRST +6 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | PAC -5.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -4.3 (-10.3) | 144.3 (+11.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -4.6 (-10.6) | 144.5 (+11.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -4.7 (-10.7) | 143.9 (+12.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -1.4 (-7.4) | 144.0 (+12.0) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-10 | 13-1 |
| Away | 2-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#248) | -6.0 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#268) | -1.16 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#244) | -0.74 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#260) | 0.409 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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