Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | OHIO -900 APSU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +20 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -7.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -6.7 (+13.3) | 138.9 (-2.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -6.3 (+13.7) | 135.9 (+0.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -6.7 (+13.3) | 135.9 (+0.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -6.8 (+13.2) | 137.9 (-1.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2023 | APSU 71 – 67 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#198) | -5.4 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#216) | -0.71 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#209) | -1.19 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#216) | 0.470 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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