Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | APSU +188 OHIO -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +4 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -0.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -1.5 (+2.5) | 138.6 (-0.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -1.9 (+2.1) | 137.3 (+0.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -2.7 (+1.3) | 136.2 (+1.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -0.7 (+4.7) | 136.8 (+1.2) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 58 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#257) | -0.7 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#245) | -0.58 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#253) | -0.67 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#266) | 0.459 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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