Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PORT -105 CSUB -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +17 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUB -5.1 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUB -3.3 (-13.7) | 143.6 (+1.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUB -2.8 (-14.2) | 144.9 (+0.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUB -3.9 (-13.1) | 144.0 (+1.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUB -6.2 (-10.8) | 143.2 (+1.8) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#337) | -2.0 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#311) | -0.33 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.60 (#327) | -0.33 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#304) | 0.488 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 20.1% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 38.3% |
Game Analysis
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