Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
Chiles Center · December 19, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread PORT -0.5 Away covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money PORT -105 / CSUB -115
Model Predictions
Spread Total PORT win
Actual CSUB +17 145 Lost
Massey CSUB -5.1 (-11.9)
Massey Totals 148.2 (-3.2)
Bradley-Terry 37%
Weighted B-T 20%
Baseline Plus ML CSUB -3.3 (-13.7) 143.6 (+1.4) 41%
Baseline ML CSUB -2.8 (-14.2) 144.9 (+0.1) 44%
Baseline Tuned ML CSUB -3.9 (-13.1) 144.0 (+1.0) 36%
Efficiency Plus ML CSUB -6.2 (-10.8) 143.2 (+1.8) 30%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PORT CSUB
Overall 12-20 14-19
Conference 7-11 8-12
Home 9-7 9-6
Away 3-9 4-11
Neutral 0-4 1-2
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 71.7 71.5
Avg Pts Against 81.2 75.2
Massey -11.2 (#337) -2.0 (#194)
Bradley-Terry -1.65 (#311) -0.33 (#201)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.60 (#327) -0.33 (#193)
RPI 0.423 (#304) 0.488 (#201)
Shooting & Four Factors PORT CSUB
FG% 40.6% 43.5%
3PT% 30.6% 35.5%
REB / G 35.9 35.9
OREB / G 7.2 12.2
AST / TO 0.94 0.64
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.3% 47.6%
TOV% 19.3% 20.1%
ORB% 20.1% 35.4%
FT Rate 26.3% 23.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.4% 51.8%
Opp TOV% 12.2% 17.2%
DRB% 75.0% 72.7%
Opp FT Rate 14.9% 38.3%

Game Analysis

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