Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | GT -1900 UMBC +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +9 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | GT -11.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -9.4 (-0.4) | 151.7 (+21.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -10.6 (-1.6) | 149.1 (+23.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -9.4 (-0.4) | 149.0 (+24.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -11.5 (-2.5) | 154.3 (+18.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-6 | 8-9 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#140) | -6.1 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#269) | -1.80 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#268) | -2.11 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#275) | 0.400 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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