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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
37–9 on winners
spread MAE 7.4
46 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+36.8 | 137.1 | 91% | 36–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.5 | 133.2 | 89% | 47–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.6 | 159.2 | 28% | 90–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.1 | 145.6 | 90% | 61–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-14.0 | 132.6 | 15% | 77–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.4 | 142.0 | 88% | 65–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 134.6 | 46% | 88–91 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.2 | 148.9 | 67% | 81–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 135.2 | 69% | 67–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 134.8 | 42% | 68–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 140.7 | 45% | 73–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.1 | 137.8 | 73% | 64–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 139.3 | 81% | 70–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 138.0 | 67% | 70–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.5 | 130.0 | 24% | 65–48 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.9 | 155.6 | 87% | 64–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 130.8 | 66% | 58–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.8 | 146.9 | 86% | 59–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.7 | 145.6 | 84% | 74–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.0 | 129.3 | 86% | 67–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.3 | 150.0 | 89% | 72–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+31.4 | 148.6 | 91% | 57–111 | ✓ |
|
|
+33.1 | 154.8 | 91% | 59–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.7 | 144.0 | 79% | 73–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.3 | 135.4 | 30% | 69–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.8 | 152.1 | 89% | 73–95 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 132.0 | 38% | 73–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 135.8 | 50% | 74–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.1 | 140.8 | 58% | 68–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 141.3 | 73% | 75–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.8 | 140.7 | 71% | 68–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.4 | 150.8 | 91% | 51–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+28.3 | 152.0 | 91% | 59–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+27.3 | 151.4 | 91% | 53–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+34.9 | 153.2 | 91% | 75–111 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 157.3 | 84% | 94–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+24.4 | 128.6 | 90% | 45–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.1 | 135.5 | 84% | 68–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 149.0 | 67% | 74–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.3 | 151.4 | 73% | 80–76 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.8 | 139.6 | 37% | 67–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.1 | 133.6 | 73% | 60–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 148.8 | 76% | 67–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 149.3 | 36% | 85–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 142.9 | 70% | 57–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 154.3 | 87% | 72–77 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.