I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
Neville Arena · December 18, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread AUB -39.5 Home covered
O/U 156.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total AUB win
Actual AUB +41 159 Won
Massey AUB -39.7 (+1.3)
Massey Totals 158.2 (+0.8)
Bradley-Terry 100%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML AUB -33.1 (+7.9) 154.8 (+4.2) 91%
Baseline ML AUB -32.4 (+8.6) 154.5 (+4.5) 91%
Baseline Tuned ML AUB -25.7 (+15.3) 156.0 (+3.0) 91%
Efficiency Plus ML AUB -27.2 (+13.8) 155.0 (+4.0) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 15, 2022 AUB 7264 GAST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AUB GAST
Overall 32-6 14-19
Conference 15-3 8-10
Home 13-2 9-6
Away 8-2 3-11
Neutral 11-2 2-2
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 83.0 74.2
Avg Pts Against 69.4 78.7
Massey 27.7 (#1) -7.7 (#295)
Bradley-Terry 4.28 (#3) -1.39 (#294)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.87 (#5) -2.01 (#298)
RPI 0.723 (#2) 0.437 (#284)
Shooting & Four Factors AUB GAST
FG% 50.5% 41.9%
3PT% 38.2% 33.5%
REB / G 39.8 38.1
OREB / G 11.6 11.8
AST / TO 2.15 0.84
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 58.8% 47.2%
TOV% 12.7% 18.7%
ORB% 35.3% 31.9%
FT Rate 21.5% 26.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.7% 52.2%
Opp TOV% 15.2% 13.3%
DRB% 75.4% 72.3%
Opp FT Rate 24.0% 23.0%

Game Analysis

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