Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -39.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +41 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -39.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -33.1 (+7.9) | 154.8 (+4.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -32.4 (+8.6) | 154.5 (+4.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -25.7 (+15.3) | 156.0 (+3.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -27.2 (+13.8) | 155.0 (+4.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2022 | AUB 72 – 64 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 27.7 (#1) | -7.7 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.28 (#3) | -1.39 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.87 (#5) | -2.01 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.723 (#2) | 0.437 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.15 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.8% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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