Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -2500 GAST +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +8 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -22.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -19.3 (-11.3) | 133.7 (+2.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -19.7 (-11.7) | 132.0 (+4.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -18.0 (-10.0) | 133.1 (+2.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -16.5 (-8.5) | 135.1 (+0.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2024 | AUB 100 – 59 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 3-15 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-9 |
| Away | 4-8 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#51) | -7.6 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#29) | -1.37 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#33) | -1.65 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#15) | 0.381 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 20.4% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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