Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -32.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +54 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | MD -30.2 (+23.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -31.4 (+22.6) | 148.6 (+19.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -29.4 (+24.6) | 147.9 (+20.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -24.3 (+29.7) | 147.5 (+20.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -26.4 (+27.6) | 149.5 (+18.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 17-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-13 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#8) | -6.6 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#60) | -0.72 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#51) | -1.28 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#91) | 0.491 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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