Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | WAKE -385 JMU +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +17 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -1.3 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -3.8 (+13.2) | 130.8 (+2.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -2.4 (+14.6) | 131.4 (+1.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -3.5 (+13.5) | 130.9 (+2.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -2.9 (+14.1) | 134.4 (-1.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#157) | 3.2 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#55) | -0.12 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#69) | 0.04 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#76) | 0.501 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.4% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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