Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -4000 JXST +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +11 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -17.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -18.3 (-7.3) | 150.0 (+5.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -17.5 (-6.5) | 152.1 (+2.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -16.5 (-5.5) | 150.6 (+4.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -15.5 (-4.5) | 151.9 (+3.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 18-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#35) | 0.5 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#22) | -0.64 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.98 (#22) | -0.82 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#71) | 0.477 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.2% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.6% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 38.3% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 11.0% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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