Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ECU -380 FIU +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -5.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -6.1 (+4.9) | 137.8 (+1.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -5.0 (+6.0) | 137.7 (+1.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -5.1 (+5.9) | 138.1 (+0.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -7.3 (+3.7) | 136.7 (+2.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 3-15 |
| Home | 12-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#186) | -2.9 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#249) | -1.67 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#255) | -2.20 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#242) | 0.400 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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