Betting Lines
| Spread | OSU -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | OSU -10000 VAL +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +22 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | OSU -21.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -18.8 (+3.2) | 152.1 (+15.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -19.1 (+2.9) | 152.3 (+15.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -18.3 (+3.7) | 151.9 (+16.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -20.5 (+1.5) | 151.5 (+16.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#26) | -2.8 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#77) | -0.62 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#62) | -0.66 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#73) | 0.456 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 41.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 34.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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