Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UML -1250 STO +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +11 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UML -8.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -9.8 (+1.2) | 148.3 (-3.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -7.1 (+3.9) | 148.2 (-3.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -7.4 (+3.6) | 149.6 (-4.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -6.8 (+4.2) | 148.8 (-3.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | UML 75 – 64 STO |
| Nov 29, 2023 | UML 80 – 74 STO |
| Nov 27, 2022 | UML 73 – 59 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#200) | -6.2 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#129) | -0.68 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#131) | -0.74 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#133) | 0.453 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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