What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
Merkert Gymnasium · November 29, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UML -15.5 Home covered
O/U 148.0 Over
Money STO +900 / UML -1600
Model Predictions
Spread Total STO win
Actual UML +6 154 Lost
Massey UML -18.8 (+12.8)
Massey Totals 149.7 (+4.3)
Bradley-Terry 9%
Weighted B-T 2%
Efficiency Plus ML UML -13.1 (+7.1) 148.2 (+5.8) 17%
Baseline Tuned ML UML -9.5 (+3.5) 145.6 (+8.4) 18%
Baseline ML UML -13.9 (+7.9) 146.6 (+7.4) 15%
Baseline Plus ML UML -12.6 (+6.6) 146.6 (+7.4) 15%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 26, 2025 UML 7564 STO
Dec 18, 2024 UML 7867 STO
Nov 27, 2022 UML 7359 STO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings STO UML
Overall 4-27 22-10
Conference 2-14 11-5
Home 4-8 12-3
Away 0-19 10-7
Neutral 0-0 0-0
Last 5 0-5 3-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 63.5 77.0
Avg Pts Against 76.1 72.2
Massey -14.6 (#353) 10.6 (#38)
Bradley-Terry -1.54 (#294) 2.04 (#50)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.42 (#297) 2.96 (#46)
RPI 0.452 (#243) 0.549 (#109)
Shooting & Four Factors STO UML
FG% 39.1% 48.1%
3PT% 31.4% 31.2%
REB / G 30.1 38.5
OREB / G 7.7 10.2
AST / TO 0.69 0.75
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.3% 52.4%
TOV% 22.0% 20.9%
ORB% 21.7% 31.5%
FT Rate 17.0% 22.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 60.9% 41.5%
Opp TOV% 17.4% 17.5%
DRB% 68.6% 69.8%
Opp FT Rate 16.8% 21.7%

Game Analysis

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