Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
| Money | STO +900 UML -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +6 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | UML -18.8 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -12.6 (+6.6) | 146.6 (+7.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -13.1 (+7.1) | 148.2 (+5.8) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -9.5 (+3.5) | 145.6 (+8.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -13.9 (+7.9) | 146.6 (+7.4) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | UML 75 – 64 STO |
| Dec 18, 2024 | UML 78 – 67 STO |
| Nov 27, 2022 | UML 73 – 59 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 11-5 |
| Home | 4-8 | 12-3 |
| Away | 0-19 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -14.6 (#353) | 10.6 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#294) | 2.04 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#297) | 2.96 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#243) | 0.549 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.9% | 41.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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