Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | STO -142 UML +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +11 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | STO -13.4 (-24.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -7.9 (-18.9) | 142.0 (-3.0) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -9.2 (-20.2) | 143.4 (-4.4) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STO -10.4 (-21.4) | 144.0 (-5.0) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -9.9 (-20.9) | 144.4 (-5.4) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2024 | UML 78 – 67 STO |
| Nov 29, 2023 | UML 80 – 74 STO |
| Nov 27, 2022 | UML 73 – 59 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-15 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#283) | -14.2 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#335) | -3.27 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.08 (#335) | -4.87 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#323) | 0.367 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 13.1% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 58.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 59.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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