Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UML -800 STO +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +14 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UML -20.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.0 (-29.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -14.4 (-0.4) | 149.9 (-17.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -16.5 (-2.5) | 155.4 (-23.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -17.3 (-3.3) | 154.3 (-22.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -18.4 (-4.4) | 153.1 (-21.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | UML 75 – 64 STO |
| Dec 18, 2024 | UML 78 – 67 STO |
| Nov 29, 2023 | UML 80 – 74 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 10-6 |
| Home | 17-0 | 7-4 |
| Away | 9-8 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#62) | -6.3 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#158) | -1.18 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#195) | -2.21 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#130) | 0.480 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 27.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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